Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Max Power?

Our nation's Capitals are in another slump, injuries abound, and the penalty minutes are going up, up, up. Things are a little bleak in Capsland right now, though I have no doubt they'll eventually break out of it and head back into another winning streak, to be followed up by another slump (as seems to be the pattern this season). Let's not forget that this is a young team with a lot on their plate right now; getting healthy is a key factor at the moment.

Anyway, despite the issues, the Caps are still hanging in there in ESPN's Power Rankings, for what it's worth (all right, that's not much, but it's something):

13 (9) Capitals 16-17-7 Many tell us that special teams don't count. Well, you can't argue how they're effecting the Caps. They have lost five straight, and in each of those games, they've allowed at least one PP goal. The Caps are also a lowly 3-for-30 on the man advantage during that span.

Yeah, they're down to unlucky 13 from #9. But I think that's a testament to how far along the team has come in a short time, for them to be ranked that highly at all by ESPN's "experts." For most of the season the Caps have been languishing in the high teens/low 20s, so to be up there with teams like Calgary, Carolina, and New Jersey (who, incidentally, replaced them at #9) who have winning records, isn't so bad. At least according to the pros at ESPN, who don't seem to have it in for the Caps this week. They're probably too nice, as we'll see.

The Checking Line does a nice graphical analysis of the rankings and shows that the Caps are the biggest drop for the week.

Those are the rankings by the "experts"- how about rankings by the fans?There's undoubtedly a bias; most fans are more than likely to rank their team highly (after the obvious powerhouses), even if they root for the Flyers. But I think this is more accurate, if anyone really cares about power rankings anyway. Anaheim has to be up closer to the top than #5 (as ESPN ranked them), and they're #2 here. Atlanta's hardly a #2; #5 is more like it. And guess what? This is reflected in Fox Sports' Power Rankings as well:

22 Capitals 14 (-8) 12/23 (.488) The Washington Capitals couldn't wait for the year to come to a close, as they dropped all four games they played in the final week of 2006. The Caps might have been able to skate away with a few points if their power play didn't go south on them, only connecting twice in 23 tries in the four losses.

It's interesting that Fox's list and the SportsNation list are pretty similar.

You could analyze the differences between the lists all the live long day and come up with a bunch of crap, but it really comes down to this: power rankings aren't worth the paper they're written on. Since the rankings vary from one major sports outlet to another (and in some cases, are quite different), how useful are they? They're a decent snapshot of where a team may be at one point in time compared to the other teams, depending on a number of factors, but it's all subjective. Just look at this compilation of rankings from last week that Japers' Rink put together; the Caps moved anywhere from up 8 spots to down one. I think J.P. is right when he calls them "respect rankings." It's not a question of power, but who's willing to give the Caps a little love that week. Will I stop reading the Power Rankings? No, but I take them with a grain of salt (and I don't even bother with TSN's, since they don't even seem to know who Ovechkin and Zubrus are).

3 comments:

Mr. Smooth said...

ESPN.com also had the Saints and Ravens in the bottom third of the league during their early season rankings. Maybe one day they'll get it correct.

At least they are covering the Caps, right?

Anonymous said...

Special teams do matter. The Habs are one of the worst 5 on 5 teams in the league but have top 5 PP and PK units, including most SH goals. Though the Habs had a rough weekend in Florida (as they always do) they are still better than the #8 ranking. The Ducks are top three in the league, even with Pronger out. I wouldn't expect the Caps to get out of their slump tonight against the Habs, sorry, though I am looking forward to seeing AO again tonight. GO HABS GO!

Habs Fan

ihateyuppies said...

At least the Caps aren't Power Rankings doormats. Poor Flyers.

The Caps always surprise me. They spanked the Buffalo Banana Slugs at Verizon a while ago. Even though the Habs have loads more talent than the Caps, don't be surprised if there is an upset tonight.